Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Carlos Narváez

Boston Red Sox · C · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.46
Edge
-15.6%
Trending splitsDay 61%(18)
Last 20
40%8/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.45
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
50%
18/36
Avg0.70
StreakL4

Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
26.0%
92.7.075.12534.6%
Sinker
17.9%
90.8.281.3756.5%
Changeup
14.8%
88.7.250.33326.9%
Slider
14.5%
85.3.156.15643.5%
Cutter
13.5%
87.0.375.37550.0%
Curveball
13.3%
80.7.286.42915.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Carlos Narváez clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Romy Gonzalez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 68% · n=37 · -186 DraftKings
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 62% · base 57% · n=74 · -213 BetOnline

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 20 vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs HOU05/011vs HOU05/030@ DET05/060vs TB05/080vs TB05/101vs PHI05/121@ ATL05/151@ ATL05/171@ KC05/200vs MIN05/242@ CLE05/311vs TEX06/130vs TEX06/140@ SEA06/190@ SEA06/201vs NYY06/250vs NYY06/270vs WSH06/290vs WSH06/300@ LAA07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-126-105
BetOnline0.5-116-111

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET12:11 AM ET
BetOnlineDraftKings

League vs CWS Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Andruw Monasterio BOS07/072
Willson Contreras BOS07/072
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/072
Jarren Duran BOS07/072
Connor Wong BOS07/071
Anthony Seigler BOS07/071
Romy Gonzalez BOS07/071
Caleb Durbin BOS07/070
Wilyer Abreu BOS07/070
Daniel Schneemann CLE07/052
Chase DeLauter CLE07/052
Gabriel Arias CLE07/052
Patrick Bailey CLE07/051
Kahlil Watson CLE07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

Exit Velo
81.3292.0594.4388.5488.7691.2895.0193.8486.29
AVG
.500.300.222.176.333.000.000.222.353
sluggingPercentage
.833.600.556.176.400.000.000.333.412
onBasePercentage
.429.300.200.176.313.000.000.200.353
OPS
1.143.900.700.353.688.000.000.500.765