Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Carlos Narváez

Boston Red Sox · C · Bats R

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.64
Edge
-5.3%
Trending splitsDay 61%(18)
Last 10
50%5/10 over 0.5
Window avg
0.80
Median
0.5
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
2026
50%
6/12
Avg1.38
StreakW2

Tonight's matchup: Davis Martin (RHP)

Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
26.0%
92.7.075.12534.6%
Sinker
17.9%
90.8.281.3756.5%
Changeup
14.8%
88.7.250.33326.9%
Slider
14.5%
85.3.156.15643.5%
Cutter
13.5%
87.0.375.37550.0%
Curveball
13.3%
80.7.286.42915.8%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Carlos Narváez clears 0.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Romy Gonzalez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 76% · base 68% · n=37 · -186 DraftKings
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 62% · base 57% · n=74 · -200 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 10 vs 0.5

official box scores
2vs DET04/190@ DET05/042vs PHI05/140@ KC05/191vs MIN05/220vs ATL05/280vs BAL06/040@ TB06/082@ COL06/241@ LAA07/030.5

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
PrizePicks0.5-137-137
BetOnline0.5-108-120

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
BetOnlinePrizePicks

League vs CWS Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 12/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Andruw Monasterio BOS07/075
Ceddanne Rafaela BOS07/075
Jarren Duran BOS07/073
Willson Contreras BOS07/073
Romy Gonzalez BOS07/072
Anthony Seigler BOS07/071
Connor Wong BOS07/071
Wilyer Abreu BOS07/070
Caleb Durbin BOS07/070
Chase DeLauter CLE07/055
Gabriel Arias CLE07/055
Daniel Schneemann CLE07/052
Travis Bazzana CLE07/052
Patrick Bailey CLE07/051

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

Exit Velo
81.3292.0594.4388.5488.7691.2895.0193.8486.29
AVG
.500.300.222.176.333.000.000.222.353
sluggingPercentage
.833.600.556.176.400.000.000.333.412
onBasePercentage
.429.300.200.176.313.000.000.200.353
OPS
1.143.900.700.353.688.000.000.500.765