Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.06
Edge
+0.4%All 203 games
8%16/203 over 0.5
Window avg
0.08
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
8%
4/51
Avg0.08
StreakL5
Tonight's matchup: Troy Melton (RHP)
Bats RightThrows RightSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 38.4% | 96.0 | .209 | .302 | 18.8% |
| Slider | 19.1% | 86.1 | .172 | .172 | 18.4% |
| Cutter | 18.8% | 91.6 | .250 | .583 | 33.3% |
| Splitter | 8.9% | 88.4 | .200 | .400 | 20.0% |
| Sinker | 8.4% | 95.3 | .353 | .485 | 8.3% |
| Curveball | 6.3% | 77.8 | — | — | — |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Jacob Wilson clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Nick Kurtz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 66% · n=11 · -175 dabble_us_dfs
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 67% · n=14 · -185 dabble_us_dfs
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 71% · base 44% · n=14 · +133 dabble_us_dfs
Lawrence Butler o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 63% · n=15 · -127 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — all 203 games vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +1709 | -1667 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs DET — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Henry Bolte OAK | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Colby Thomas OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Max Muncy OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nick Kurtz OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Zack Gelof OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonah Heim OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Shea Langeliers OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer OAK | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jake Burger TEX | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Ezequiel Duran TEX | 07/05 | 1 | ✓ |
| Joc Pederson TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Evan Carter TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cam Cauley TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
| Brandon Nimmo TEX | 07/05 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS