Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.39
Edge
+4.4%Last 20
20%4/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.20
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
20%
4/20
2026
17%
5/29
Avg0.15
StreakW1
Tonight's matchup: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 33.0% | 76.6 | .053 | .158 | 50.8% |
| Four-seam FB | 29.7% | 92.4 | .360 | .730 | 17.4% |
| Sweeper | 12.5% | 79.3 | .222 | .422 | 37.7% |
| Sinker | 10.1% | 92.1 | .361 | .607 | 12.6% |
| Changeup | 7.4% | 84.1 | .265 | .412 | 30.6% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.4 | .240 | .480 | 25.8% |
| Slider | 1.2% | 82.2 | .280 | .760 | 51.5% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when James Wood clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Daylen Lile o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 69% · n=39 · -189 dabble_us_dfs
Keibert Ruiz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 64% · n=40 · -167 DraftKings
Jorbit Vivas o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 65% · base 54% · n=20 · -137 dabble_us_dfs
Dylan Crews o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 63% · base 56% · n=30 · -169 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +260 | -256 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs HOU — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nasim Nuñez WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Young WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daylen Lile WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorbit Vivas WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| CJ Abrams WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| CJ Abrams WSH | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Daylen Lile WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nasim Nuñez WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Drew Millas WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
sluggingPercentage
OPS