Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.13
Edge
-0.8%Last 30
17%5/30 over 0.5
Window avg
0.17
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
14%
5/35
Avg0.12
StreakL3
Parlay pairs — when Noelvi Marte clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Elly De La Cruz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 85% · base 72% · n=20 · -222 dabble_us_dfs
Jose Trevino o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 51% · n=12 · -149 dabble_us_dfs
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 60% · base 45% · n=20 · +118 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 30 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +692 | -667 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs PHI — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 5/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Eugenio Suárez CIN | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Sal Stewart CIN | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Spencer Steer CIN | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| TJ Friedl CIN | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Matt McLain CIN | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Elly De La Cruz CIN | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathaniel Lowe CIN | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Bleday CIN | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyler Stephenson CIN | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Tyler Tolbert KC | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Luke Maile KC | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Lane Thomas KC | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Salvador Perez KC | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Starling Marte KC | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |