Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.35
Edge
+11.5%Last 20
25%5/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.25
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
43%
3/7
Avg0.24
StreakW2
Tonight's matchup: Shane McClanahan (LHP)
Bats LeftThrows LeftSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 36.9% | 95.6 | .352 | 1.000 | 22.5% |
| Changeup | 28.8% | 87.0 | .324 | .618 | 27.3% |
| Slider | 20.0% | 88.3 | .311 | .556 | 33.7% |
| Curveball | 14.3% | 82.1 | .200 | .514 | 33.3% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Ben Rice clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jasson Domínguez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 54% · n=25 · -149 dabble_us_dfs
Jazz Chisholm Jr. o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 61% · base 46% · n=46 · +184 dabble_us_dfs
José Caballero o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 61% · base 53% · n=28 · -123 DraftKings
José Caballero o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 61% · base 53% · n=28 · -123 BetOnline
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
vs TB only · official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +463 | -455 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs TB — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Paul Goldschmidt NYY | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Caballero NYY | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cody Bellinger NYY | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Ali Sánchez NYY | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Max Schuemann NYY | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Trent Grisham NYY | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Amed Rosario NYY | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Caballero NYY | 07/06 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Austin Wells NYY | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cody Bellinger NYY | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Trent Grisham NYY | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jasson Domínguez NYY | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
onBasePercentage
OPS