Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.79
Edge
+6.9%Last 5
40%2/5 over 1.5
Window avg
1.80
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
45%
9/20
2026
40%
36/89
Avg1.71
StreakL1
Tonight's matchup: MacKenzie Gore (LHP)
Bats RightThrows LeftPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 45.0% | 95.4 | .267 | .611 | 19.5% |
| Curveball | 21.3% | 81.7 | .032 | .065 | 55.2% |
| Changeup | 10.2% | 86.7 | .093 | .163 | 44.9% |
| Slider | 9.5% | 85.8 | .262 | .462 | 42.8% |
| Cutter | 8.9% | 89.9 | .364 | .682 | 18.8% |
| Sinker | 5.1% | 95.2 | .315 | .556 | 19.3% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Zach Neto clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Denzer Guzman o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 78% · base 74% · n=9 · -139 dabble_us_dfs
Nolan Schanuel o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 62% · n=135 · -164 dabble_us_dfs
Logan O'Hoppe o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 60% · base 55% · n=121 · -129 DraftKings
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — last 5 vs 1.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Total Bases
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 1.5 | +130 | -174 |
| Bovada | 1.5 | +130 | -170 |
| dabble_us_dfs | 1.5 | +143 | -141 |
Line movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovadadabble_us_dfs
League vs TEX — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 4/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Jo Adell LAA | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Jorge Soler LAA | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Denzer Guzman LAA | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Oswald Peraza LAA | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Nolan Schanuel LAA | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Wade Meckler LAA | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Logan O'Hoppe LAA | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Josh Lowe LAA | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Riley Greene DET | 07/05 | 8 | ✓ |
| Kevin McGonigle DET | 07/05 | 2 | ✓ |
| James Outman DET | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Spencer Torkelson DET | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Dillon Dingler DET | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
| Kerry Carpenter DET | 07/05 | 1 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
AVG
Exit Velo
sluggingPercentage
OPS