Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Kyle Stowers

Miami Marlins · RF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.19
Edge
-0.7%
Last 20
11%2/18 over 1 · 2 push
Window avg
0.30
Median
0.0
L5
25%
1/4
L10
11%
1/9
L20
11%
2/18
2026
5%
3/62
Avg0.16
StreakL1

Tonight's matchup: George Kirby (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Sweeper
29.9%
87.1.214.28636.1%
Four-seam FB
29.4%
96.7.235.38830.6%
Sinker
21.0%
96.9.233.53321.3%
Knuckle Curve
9.9%
83.8
Changeup
6.7%
88.7.237.36841.9%
Cutter
3.0%
93.2.333.50034.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Kyle Stowers clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too

Xavier Edwards o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 81% · base 77% · n=27 · -213 dabble_us_dfs
Liam Hicks o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 60% · n=18 · -222 dabble_us_dfs
Jakob Marsee o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 56% · n=10 · -141 dabble_us_dfs
Xavier Edwards o0.5 Batter Strikeouts
hits when he does 67% · base 50% · n=27 · -137 DK Pick6

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Home Runslast 20 vs 1

official box scores
0@ PIT06/130@ PIT06/140@ PHI06/152@ PHI06/170vs SF06/190vs SF06/201vs SF06/210vs TEX06/220vs TEX06/230vs TEX06/240@ STL06/260@ STL06/270@ STL06/280@ COL06/290@ COL06/300@ COL07/010@ COL07/022@ OAK07/031@ OAK07/040vs SEA07/071

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+444-435

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs SEA Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 1/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Owen Caissie MIA07/071
Javier Sanoja MIA07/070
Jakob Marsee MIA07/070
Liam Hicks MIA07/070
Xavier Edwards MIA07/070
Joe Mack MIA07/070
Otto Lopez MIA07/070
Griffin Conine MIA07/070
Sean Keys TOR07/050
Ernie Clement TOR07/050
Daulton Varsho TOR07/050
Luis Urías TOR07/050
Alejandro Kirk TOR07/050
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.200.231.231.053.378.455.250.379.364
Exit Velo
98.2196.7975.3886.37100.1688.4284.65100.5197.41
onBasePercentage
.273.231.214.053.359.455.250.379.364
sluggingPercentage
.500.308.385.053.8921.000.313.690.545
OPS
.727.538.571.1051.2051.455.5631.069.909