Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Mike Yastrzemski

Atlanta Braves · RF · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.09
Edge
-2.1%
Last 15
13%2/15 over 0.5
Window avg
0.13
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
6%
5/81
Avg0.11
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Jared Jones (RHP)

Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
38.0%
98.6.228.30423.4%
Slider
32.6%
90.2.111.29627.9%
Changeup
17.8%
93.4.231.34620.0%
Curveball
11.6%
85.7.176.41228.6%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Home Runslast 15 vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs SF06/171vs MIL06/190@ SD06/220@ SD06/230@ SF06/260@ SF06/270@ SF06/280vs STL06/300vs STL07/010vs STL07/020vs NYM07/031vs NYM07/040vs NYM07/050vs NYM07/060@ PIT07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Home Runs

BookLineOverUnder
dabble_us_dfs0.5+834-833

Line movement — Home Runs

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs PIT Home Runs, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 2/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Dominic Smith ATL07/070
Mauricio Dubón ATL07/070
Jim Jarvis ATL07/070
Austin Riley ATL07/070
Michael Harris II ATL07/070
Matt Olson ATL07/070
Ozzie Albies ATL07/070
Drake Baldwin ATL07/070
Dylan Crews WSH07/051
Luis García Jr. WSH07/051
Keibert Ruiz WSH07/050
CJ Abrams WSH07/050
Jorbit Vivas WSH07/050
James Wood WSH07/050

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

Exit Velo
97.4792.9682.7993.6194.1381.6389.6295.2391.02
AVG
.000.208.091.269.222.182.250.211.700
sluggingPercentage
.000.375.091.346.370.182.313.5261.000
onBasePercentage
.000.208.091.269.214.182.250.211.727
OPS
.000.583.182.615.571.364.563.7371.636