Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.07
Edge
-7.8%Last 30
13%4/30 over 0.5
Window avg
0.13
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
10%
1/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
12%
3/25
Avg0.07
StreakL3
Tonight's matchup: Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 44.0% | 93.5 | .241 | .380 | 25.5% |
| Slider | 18.5% | 87.2 | .263 | .526 | 22.4% |
| Changeup | 15.5% | 83.7 | .189 | .351 | 16.4% |
| Knuckle Curve | 14.3% | 81.2 | — | — | — |
| Sinker | 7.8% | 90.6 | .370 | .522 | 12.2% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Jonathan Aranda clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jonny DeLuca o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 61% · n=12 · -159 dabble_us_dfs
Nick Fortes o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 67% · base 57% · n=9 · -127 dabble_us_dfs
Richie Palacios o0.5 Runs Scored
hits when he does 60% · base 38% · n=10 · +264 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 30 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +592 | -588 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs NYY — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Yandy Díaz TB | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Victor Mesa Jr. TB | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Hunter Feduccia TB | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Richie Palacios TB | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Taylor Walls TB | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Chandler Simpson TB | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Junior Caminero TB | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Cedric Mullins TB | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonny DeLuca TB | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Junior Caminero TB | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nick Fortes TB | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Richie Palacios TB | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Yandy Díaz TB | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Chandler Simpson TB | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
sluggingPercentage
Exit Velo
AVG
onBasePercentage
OPS