Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.26
Edge
+3.4%Last 30
23%7/30 over 0.5
Window avg
0.23
Median
0.0
L5
20%
1/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
25%
5/20
2026
21%
19/89
Avg0.16
StreakL1
Tonight's matchup: Spencer Arrighetti (RHP)
Bats LeftThrows RightPlatoon edge: batter
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 33.0% | 76.6 | .270 | .405 | 34.3% |
| Four-seam FB | 29.7% | 92.4 | .351 | .571 | 25.1% |
| Sweeper | 12.5% | 79.3 | .138 | .241 | 37.0% |
| Sinker | 10.1% | 92.1 | .244 | .400 | 12.9% |
| Changeup | 7.4% | 84.1 | .222 | .489 | 32.0% |
| Cutter | 6.0% | 87.4 | .417 | 1.125 | 22.0% |
| Slider | 1.2% | 82.2 | .259 | .534 | 36.9% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when CJ Abrams clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jorbit Vivas o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 91% · base 54% · n=11 · -137 dabble_us_dfs
Keibert Ruiz o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 61% · n=33 · -167 DraftKings
Nasim Nuñez o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 62% · base 49% · n=21 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Nasim Nuñez o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 62% · base 49% · n=21 · -108 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 30 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +413 | -400 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs HOU — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| James Wood WSH | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis García Jr. WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Keibert Ruiz WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nasim Nuñez WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jacob Young WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jorbit Vivas WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daylen Lile WSH | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| James Wood WSH | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Curtis Mead WSH | 07/06 | 1 | ✓ |
| Nasim Nuñez WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Dylan Crews WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Daylen Lile WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
| Drew Millas WSH | 07/06 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
AVG
OPS
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