Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Alec Burleson

St. Louis Cardinals · DH · Bats L

Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.21
Edge
-2.0%
Last 10
40%4/10 over 1.5
Window avg
1.00
Median
0.0
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
35%
7/20
2026
47%
42/89
Avg1.63
StreakL3

Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)

Bats LeftThrows LeftSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
58.7%
95.0.321.56023.0%
Slurve
30.4%
82.2.250.2500.0%
Changeup
9.3%
86.3.333.50917.6%
Sinker
1.7%
94.8.262.37719.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Alec Burleson clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too

Iván Herrera o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 68% · n=106 · -189 dabble_us_dfs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 64% · n=84 · -200 dabble_us_dfs
Michael McGreevy o16.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 72% · base 67% · n=18 · -120 dabble_us_dfs
Masyn Winn o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 67% · n=134 · -156 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Total Baseslast 10 vs 1.5

official box scores
0vs MIA06/280@ ATL06/300@ ATL07/014@ ATL07/022@ CHC07/032@ CHC07/042@ CHC07/050vs MIL07/060vs MIL07/070vs MIL07/071.5

Tonight's odds — Total Bases

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings1.5+135-180
Bovada1.5+135-180

Line movement — Total Bases

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

1.512:11 AM ET12:11 AM ET
DraftKingsBovada

League vs MIL Total Bases, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 5/14 would clear tonight's 1.5

Iván Herrera STL07/075
Jordan Walker STL07/074
Nelson Velázquez STL07/074
Lars Nootbaar STL07/072
Jordan Walker STL07/072
JJ Wetherholt STL07/071
José Fermín STL07/071
Blaze Jordan STL07/070
Bryan Torres STL07/070
Nathan Church STL07/070
Masyn Winn STL07/070
José Fermín STL07/070
Nathan Church STL07/070
JJ Wetherholt STL07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.200.226.211.314.265.278.280.297.273
Exit Velo
90.6296.7992.3793.4993.0793.1187.1695.2198.81
onBasePercentage
.190.226.211.333.265.278.269.297.333
sluggingPercentage
.200.516.211.571.735.722.320.351.636
OPS
.381.742.421.8891.0001.000.577.649.917