Tonight's line
1.5
Model proj
1.21
Edge
-2.0%Batter StrikeoutsEarned RunsHitsHits AllowedHits + Runs + RBIsHome RunsPitcher OutsPitcher StrikeoutsPitcher WalksRBIsRuns ScoredStolen BasesTotal BasesWalks
All 148 games
36%54/148 over 1.5
Window avg
1.49
Median
1.0
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
40%
8/20
2026
41%
13/32
Avg1.49
StreakW2
Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Bats LeftThrows LeftSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 58.7% | 95.0 | .321 | .560 | 23.0% |
| Slurve | 30.4% | 82.2 | .250 | .250 | 0.0% |
| Changeup | 9.3% | 86.3 | .333 | .509 | 17.6% |
| Sinker | 1.7% | 94.8 | .262 | .377 | 19.1% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Alec Burleson clears 1.5 Total Bases, these hit too
Iván Herrera o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 75% · base 68% · n=106 · -189 dabble_us_dfs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 73% · base 64% · n=84 · -200 dabble_us_dfs
Michael McGreevy o16.5 Pitcher Outs
hits when he does 72% · base 67% · n=18 · -120 dabble_us_dfs
Masyn Winn o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 72% · base 67% · n=134 · -156 dabble_us_dfs
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Total Bases — all 148 games vs 1.5
official box scoresLine movement — Total Bases
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
DraftKingsBovada
League vs MIL — Total Bases, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 5/14 would clear tonight's 1.5
| Iván Herrera STL | 07/07 | 5 | ✓ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Nelson Velázquez STL | 07/07 | 4 | ✓ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| Lars Nootbaar STL | 07/07 | 2 | ✓ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| José Fermín STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✗ |
| Blaze Jordan STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Iván Herrera STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Masyn Winn STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jimmy Crooks STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
AVG
Exit Velo
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
OPS