Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.10
Edge
-0.8%Batter StrikeoutsEarned RunsHitsHits AllowedHits + Runs + RBIsHome RunsPitcher OutsPitcher StrikeoutsPitcher WalksRBIsRuns ScoredStolen BasesTotal BasesWalks
Last 20
10%2/20 over 0.5
Window avg
0.10
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
20%
2/10
L20
10%
2/20
2026
13%
4/32
Avg0.13
StreakL5
Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)
Bats LeftThrows LeftSame-side matchup
| Pitch | He throws it | Velo | Batter BA vs | SLG vs | Whiff% vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-seam FB | 58.7% | 95.0 | .321 | .560 | 23.0% |
| Slurve | 30.4% | 82.2 | .250 | .250 | 0.0% |
| Changeup | 9.3% | 86.3 | .333 | .509 | 17.6% |
| Sinker | 1.7% | 94.8 | .262 | .377 | 19.1% |
Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.
Parlay pairs — when Alec Burleson clears 0.5 Home Runs, these hit too
Jordan Walker o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 77% · base 64% · n=22 · -200 dabble_us_dfs
Iván Herrera o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 77% · base 68% · n=30 · -189 dabble_us_dfs
Pedro Pagés o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 70% · base 57% · n=23 · +101 DraftKings
Pedro Pagés o0.5 Total Bases
hits when he does 70% · base 57% · n=23 · -137 PrizePicks
Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.
Home Runs — last 20 vs 0.5
official box scoresTonight's odds — Home Runs
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| dabble_us_dfs | 0.5 | +847 | -833 |
Line movement — Home Runs
From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).
Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.
League vs MIL — Home Runs, 2026
Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 3/14 would clear tonight's 0.5
| Iván Herrera STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Nelson Velázquez STL | 07/07 | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Walker STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Bryan Torres STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Nathan Church STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Blaze Jordan STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Jimmy Crooks STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| JJ Wetherholt STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Fermín STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| José Fermín STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
| Lars Nootbaar STL | 07/07 | 0 | ✗ |
Strike-zone performance
Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.
AVG
Exit Velo
onBasePercentage
sluggingPercentage
OPS