Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Alec Burleson

St. Louis Cardinals · DH · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.77
Edge
-11.6%
Trending splitsvs RHP 78%(40)
Last 5
0%0/5 over 0.5
Window avg
0.00
Median
0.0
L5
0%
0/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
70%
14/20
2026
66%
31/47
Avg0.99
StreakL6

Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)

Bats LeftThrows LeftSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
58.7%
95.0.321.56023.0%
Slurve
30.4%
82.2.250.2500.0%
Changeup
9.3%
86.3.333.50917.6%
Sinker
1.7%
94.8.262.37719.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Alec Burleson clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Masyn Winn o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 67% · n=218 · -156 dabble_us_dfs
Blaze Jordan o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 62% · base 45% · n=13 · -128 dabble_us_dfs

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitslast 5 vs 0.5

home only · official box scores
0vs MIA06/270vs MIA06/280vs MIL07/060vs MIL07/070vs MIL07/070.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-231+171
dabble_us_dfs0.5-179+180

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

0.512:11 AM ET11:15 AM ET
DraftKingsdabble_us_dfs

League vs MIL Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Iván Herrera STL07/072
Jordan Walker STL07/072
Nelson Velázquez STL07/071
José Fermín STL07/071
Lars Nootbaar STL07/071
Jordan Walker STL07/071
JJ Wetherholt STL07/071
Nathan Church STL07/070
Iván Herrera STL07/070
JJ Wetherholt STL07/070
José Fermín STL07/070
Jimmy Crooks STL07/070
Masyn Winn STL07/070
Blaze Jordan STL07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.200.226.211.314.265.278.280.297.273
Exit Velo
90.6296.7992.3793.4993.0793.1187.1695.2198.81
onBasePercentage
.190.226.211.333.265.278.269.297.333
sluggingPercentage
.200.516.211.571.735.722.320.351.636
OPS
.381.742.421.8891.0001.000.577.649.917