Probetrics — Sports Analytics
MLB Prop Board

Alec Burleson

St. Louis Cardinals · DH · Bats L

Tonight's line
0.5
Model proj
0.77
Edge
-11.6%
All 148 games
66%98/148 over 0.5
Window avg
0.97
Median
1.0
L5
80%
4/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
80%
16/20
2026
72%
23/32
Avg0.97
StreakW2

Tonight's matchup: Kyle Harrison (LHP)

Bats LeftThrows LeftSame-side matchup
PitchHe throws itVeloBatter BA vsSLG vsWhiff% vs
Four-seam FB
58.7%
95.0.321.56023.0%
Slurve
30.4%
82.2.250.2500.0%
Changeup
9.3%
86.3.333.50917.6%
Sinker
1.7%
94.8.262.37719.1%

Batter vs-pitch numbers are full-season vs that pitch type league-wide (Statcast), not vs this pitcher alone. Green BA ≥ .280 · red ≤ .210; whiff green ≤ 20% · red ≥ 32%.

Parlay pairs — when Alec Burleson clears 0.5 Hits, these hit too

Masyn Winn o0.5 Hits
hits when he does 71% · base 67% · n=218 · -175 DraftKings

Correlation from shared games in our database — books price correlated same-game legs accordingly; treat combined odds as an estimate.

Hitsall 148 games vs 0.5

official box scores
0vs TB03/290vs NYM04/011@ DET04/031@ DET04/043@ WSH04/082vs BOS04/122vs CLE04/150@ HOU04/190vs SEA04/250vs SEA04/263@ PIT04/301vs LAD05/031vs MIL05/061@ SD05/100@ OAK05/141vs KC05/161vs KC05/172vs PIT05/210@ MIL05/250@ MIL05/271vs CIN06/061vs CIN06/071@ NYM06/111@ MIN06/131@ MIN06/141vs SD06/173@ KC06/210vs MIA06/282@ CHC07/032@ CHC07/050.5

Tonight's odds — Hits

BookLineOverUnder
DraftKings0.5-231+171

Line movement — Hits

From our own market snapshots (every poll since lines opened).

Line history builds as we snapshot the market — check back closer to game time.

League vs MIL Hits, 2026

Last 14 qualifying performances against them · 7/14 would clear tonight's 0.5

Iván Herrera STL07/072
Jordan Walker STL07/072
Jordan Walker STL07/071
Nelson Velázquez STL07/071
José Fermín STL07/071
Lars Nootbaar STL07/071
JJ Wetherholt STL07/071
José Fermín STL07/070
JJ Wetherholt STL07/070
Nathan Church STL07/070
Iván Herrera STL07/070
Masyn Winn STL07/070
Nathan Church STL07/070
Jimmy Crooks STL07/070

Strike-zone performance

Official MLB hot/cold zones, catcher's view — red hot, blue cold. In-zone 3×3 plus chase corners.

AVG
.200.226.211.314.265.278.280.297.273
Exit Velo
90.6296.7992.3793.4993.0793.1187.1695.2198.81
onBasePercentage
.190.226.211.333.265.278.269.297.333
sluggingPercentage
.200.516.211.571.735.722.320.351.636
OPS
.381.742.421.8891.0001.000.577.649.917