| Book | A. Zverev MLA bet on who wins, no handicap. -150 = bet $150 to win $100 (favorite). +130 = bet $100 to win $130 (underdog). | A. Fery ML | SpreadThe handicap. A -1.5 favorite must win by 2+; a +1.5 underdog can lose by 1 and still cover. | TotalThe over/under on combined points/runs scored by both teams. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -650 | +450 | — | — | — / — |
| BetRivers | -835 | +550 | — | — | — / — |
| BetUS | -800 | +500 | — | — | — / — |
| Bovada | -750 | +500 | — | — | — / — |
| DraftKings | -780 | +520 | — | — | — / — |
| Fanatics | -700 | +480 | — | — | — / — |
| FanDuel | -710 | +490 | — | — | — / — |
| MyBookie | -725 | +490 | — | — | — / — |
| Caesars | -800 | +450 | — | — | — / — |
The market's true win probability once the bookmaker fee is removed. When our model disagrees, that gap is the edge. Market (devig): Fery 15% — model edge +2.8% on Fery
First career meeting.
Model: serve/return point rates (2023-24 tour data) through an exact game-set-match Markov chain, blended with rank points, 24-month surface record, recent form, and H2H. Set scores assume set independence. Experimental — size responsibly.
