| Book | N. Djokovic MLA bet on who wins, no handicap. -150 = bet $150 to win $100 (favorite). +130 = bet $100 to win $130 (underdog). | J. Sinner ML | SpreadThe handicap. A -1.5 favorite must win by 2+; a +1.5 underdog can lose by 1 and still cover. | TotalThe over/under on combined points/runs scored by both teams. | O / U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +325 | -450 | — | — | — / — |
| BetRivers | +350 | -455 | — | — | — / — |
| BetUS | +350 | -500 | — | — | — / — |
| Bovada | +350 | -450 | — | — | — / — |
| DraftKings | +341 | -459 | — | — | — / — |
| Fanatics | +335 | -475 | — | — | — / — |
| FanDuel | +390 | -530 | — | — | — / — |
| MyBookie | +330 | -481 | — | — | — / — |
| Caesars | +320 | -500 | — | — | — / — |
The market's true win probability once the bookmaker fee is removed. When our model disagrees, that gap is the edge. Market (devig): Sinner 80% — model edge -12.6% on Djokovic
Model: serve/return point rates (2023-24 tour data) through an exact game-set-match Markov chain, blended with rank points, 24-month surface record, recent form, and H2H. Set scores assume set independence. Experimental — size responsibly.
